The Whos and the Whys Behind Donald Trump’s Victory in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Abstract
Given the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 United States (U.S.) Presidential Election, this study aims to examine the 2016 electorate, unfolding the factors behind Trump’s victory, especially how different groups of people voted in the election. Hence, this paper addresses two questions, the “who” and “why” in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election - who voted for The Apprentice’s talk show host, Donald Trump, to be the most influential individual globally, and why did they do so? A logistic regression model is deployed to model survey data from the 2016 American National Election Studies, a series of election studies conducted since 1948 on public opinion in the U.S. presidential elections. This empirical methodology determined the socio-economic and political factors underlying these voters’ preferences. The findings showed that racial identity, education level, and income level on a demographic basis were crucial in determining voting choice while controlling for the respondents’ party affiliation. On an issue basis, voters were primarily dissatisfied with Obama’s performance and were attracted to Trump’s conservative tones and his exuberant personality, which resembles leadership qualities to his supporters.
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